Skip to main content

The Game After

The blog Tiger Tales recently studied whether or not a team has a higher success rate than normal in the game following a walk-off win.

He came to the conclusion that overall, there is not a significant statistical difference in performance in the following game.

So I went through my database and compiled how the Mets did in the game following a walk-off win, disqualifying games that marked the completion of a season or were ties (1 instance of a tie).

With Friday's win, the Mets improved to 182-169 in games that followed a walk-off win (including postseason). That's a win percentage of .519. Tiger Tales suggests that you compare that to the team's home win percentage, since in an overwhelming number of instances, your next game following a walk-off win is at home (not 100% sure of that, but seems like a reasonable premise). The Mets overall home win percentage, including postseason, is .514 by my computations.

So statistically speaking, it looks like there is no impact. I've had similar discussions with those in the sports statistics biz and they've come to the same conclusion.

But sometimes I think we're overgeneralizing by saying that. There are cases in which I think teams do play better post walk-off.

The 1969 Mets went 10-1 in games that followed a walk-off win. The statistically inclined might call that a small-sample sized fluke, but I think there's something to the idea that they played better post walk-off. Tom Seaver's "imperfect" game came the game after a huge walk-off win over the Cubs. The division-clinching shutout of the Cardinals came the game after a walk-off win. The World Series-clinching win over the Orioles came a game after a walk-off win.

The 1986 Mets went only 6-5 in games following a walk-off win, but their two biggest wins- the pennant clincher against the Astros and the World Series-clincher against the Red Sox- followed walk-off wins. As Sparky Anderson said on the CBS Radio broadcast, describing how he thought the Mets would fare in Game 7 of the World Series: "They'll come out looking like they're on stilts." That didn't exactly happen, but people in the ballpark that night tell me that they could feel it in the air that the Mets would not lose.

So I'll leave it to you to judge.

The day after a walk-off win, the Mets fan knows that...

The Mets are 4-2 in games that follow a walk-off win in 2008.

The 1975 Mets went a team-worst 0-6 in the game following a walk-off win.

The Mets have had two walk-off wins against the Tigers (both in 2004). One came in the game after a walk-off win.


Popular posts from this blog

Walk-Offs in Movies, TV, and Other Places

Note: I'm leaving this post up through the end of the week, a) because I don't have time to pump out something new and b)because I was hoping to build a really good list of entertainment industry if you're looking for something new, check back on Monday or so... Of course, if there's a major trade or move, I'll adjust and try to post something... In the meantime, click on the "Table of Contents" link as well. It has been updated. SPOILER ALERT: Read at your own risk Caught the ending of "A League of Their Own" on one of the movie channels the other day and it got me to thinking that it would be fun to compile a list of walk-offs from movies, television, and other forms of entertainment. Here's the start, and only the start, as I spent about 30 minutes or so thinking it over Help me fill in the blanks by filling out the comments section. "A League of Their Own"-- Racine beats Rockford for the All-American Girls Profess

The best Mets ejections I know

When you think of the Mets and famous ejections, I'm guessing you first think of the famous Bobby Valentine mustache game, when after Valentine got tossed, he returned to the dugout in disguise. You know it. You love it. I remember being amused when I asked Bobby V about it while we were working on Baseball Tonight, how he simply said "It worked. We won the game." (true) But the Bobby V mustache game of June 9, 1999 is one of many, many memorable Mets ejection stories. And now thanks to Retrosheet and the magic of , we have a convenient means for being able to share them. Ever since Retrosheet's David Smith recently announced that the Retrosheet ejection database was posted online , I've been a kid in a candy store. I've organized the data and done some lookups of media coverage around the games that interested me post. Those newspaper accounts fill in a lot of blanks. Without further ado (and with more work to do), here are some of my findings

Best Games I Know: Phillies (Updated)

  The best wins against the Phillies in Mets history …   May 5, 2022 – Mets 8, Phillies 7 The Mets score 7 runs in the 9 th inning to overcome a 7-1 deficit and win in Philadelphia.   April 29, 2022 – Mets 3, Phillies 0 Tylor Megill and 4 Mets relievers combine on the second no-hitter in franchise history.   September 22, 2016 – Mets 9, Phillies 8 (11) The Mets tie it in the 9 th on a Jose Reyes home run and win it in the 11 th on a 3-run home run by Asdrubal Cabrera.   July 17, 2016 - Mets 5, Phillies 0 Jacob deGrom pitches a one-hitter. Only hit is a single by Zach Eflin in the 5 th inning.   August 24, 2015 – Mets 16, Phillies 7 David Wright homers in his first at-bat in more than 4 months. The Mets hit a team-record 8 home runs.   July 5, 2012 – Mets 6, Phillies 5 The Mets score 2 runs with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9 th to beat Jonathan Papelbon. The winning run scores on David Wright’s bloop down the right field line.   August 13