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How often does it happen?

Today, we answer a really simple question. How often does a walk-off win occur?

Thanks to David Smith of Retrosheet, we can tell you the approximate rate. Since the start of the 2000 season, a walk-off win occurs approximately once per 11.6 games.

Simply put, that means the following:

1) A typical night of baseball features one walk-off win, but it's not all that uncommon to see two.

2) The total number of walk-offs per season ranges from around 200 to 225.

3) In an average season, a team should win via walk-off 7 times (based on playing 81 games at home). The Mets have already won by walk-off 9 times, but as we've seen, this is far from a typical season.

Here's the data, for those interested

Regular season stats
2006 Through the first 924 games, 84 walk-off wins (on pace for 221). Mets have 9
2005: 2,431 games, 204 walk-off wins. Mets had 8
2004: 2,428 games, 217 walk-off wins. Mets had 8
2003: 2,430 games, 205 walk-off wins. Mets had 4
2002: 2,426 games, 214 walk-off wins. Mets had 7
2001: 2,429 games, 187 walk-off wins. Mets had 8
2000: 2,429 games, 221 walk-off wins. Mets had 6

True Metrosheets know...The fewest walk-off wins the Mets have had in a season is 3 (1968 and the strike year of 1981). The most is 14 (1971)


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