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People Who Live in Glaus Houses Shouldn't Hit Walk-Off HR

So I recently bought a book called "The Book" (yes, that's the title) which is a rather interesting look at the mathematics of baseball strategy.

Among the things it looks at, in-depth are win probabilities, ie: the chance of a team winning, based on how often teams in that situation have won over a certain period of time.

The 2008 Mets

* Lost a game to the Brewers in which they led 6-2 in the top of the 4th

According to the win probability chart in "The Book," the home team, when leading by 4 runs in the top of the 4th, wins nearly 87 percent of the time.

* Lost a game to the Diamondbacks in which they led 5-1 in the top of the 3rd
According to the win probability chart in "The Book," the home team, when leading by 4 runs in the top of the 3rd, wins 85 percent of the time.

* Lost a game to the Diamondbacks in which they led 4-0 in the top of the 8th.

According to the win probability chart in "The Book," the home team, when leading by 4 runs in the top of the 8th, wins 96 percent of the time.

* Lost a game to the Padres in which they led 6-4 in the bottom of the 8th.
* Lost a game to the Cardinals in which they led 7-5 in the bottom of the 8th

According to those same charts, the visiting team wins, when leading by 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th, 82 percent of the time.

Those are your 2008 New York Mets, defying mathematics whenever given the opportunity.

* Walk-off loss # 376 was the Mets 5th of the season. They only had 4 walk-off losses in all of 2007.

* It is the Mets first walk-off loss to the Cardinals since August 7, 2004. Guess who had the walk-off hit that day? Yadier Molina.

* Troy Glaus is the first Cardinal to hit a walk-off home run against the Mets since Jim Edmonds in 2003.

* The Mets are now 4-14 all-time in games in which Pedro Martinez pitches for them and gets a no-decision. His ERA in those games is 3.23. Among the 14 defeats are 6 walk-off losses.

* The Mets are 0-2 in games in which a Cardinal hits a key home run to left field in the 9th inning in a game in which, in the pivotal moment, Carlos Beltran leaves the bat on his shoulder.

* True Metaus know...This was the first time the Mets ever lost a game 8-7 on a walk-off home run. It was the 8th time in team history that they lost 8-7 in walk-off fashion.

Comments

SS said…
Great stuff as always. The Book seems really cool!
8:21 AM
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